Ford Stock Plummets 18% After Missing Profit Estimates

Stock Market25/07/2024Mr. SmithMr. Smith
FORD
Ford (F) Stock Chart

Ford stock experienced a significant drop on Thursday following the release of its second-quarter earnings report, which fell short of profit expectations. Despite reporting higher revenue than anticipated, the automaker did not adjust its full-year profit guidance, contrasting with its competitor, General Motors.

Financial Performance and Market Reaction

For the quarter, Ford reported revenue of $47.8 billion, surpassing the estimated $43.37 billion according to Bloomberg consensus, marking a 2.9% increase from the previous year. However, the company posted an adjusted EPS of $0.47, missing the estimated $0.67, and an adjusted EBIT of $2.8 billion, falling short of the expected $3.73 billion.

Following these results, Ford shares plunged by over 16% as markets opened. Despite the revenue beat, the profit miss and unchanged full-year guidance led to significant investor disappointment.

Guidance and Strategic Outlook

In terms of guidance, Ford maintained its current full-year adjusted EBIT forecast of $10 billion to $12 billion but raised its adjusted free cash flow forecast by $1 billion to a range of $7.5 billion to $8.5 billion. "We don’t see the second half being much different than the first half, or falling off," said Ford CFO John Lawler. He attributed higher warranty costs as a factor impacting gains made at Ford Pro.

Ford's strategic restructuring under its Ford+ plan, which divides the business into three units—Ford Blue, Ford Model e, and Ford Pro—aims to enhance focus and accountability. Ford Blue, the traditional gas-powered division, reported $26.7 billion in revenue and $1.171 billion in EBIT. The EV division, Ford Model e, generated $1.1 billion in revenue but incurred an EBIT loss of $1.143 billion. Meanwhile, Ford Pro, the commercial vehicle unit, posted $17 billion in revenue and $2.564 billion in EBIT.

Market Dynamics and Future Prospects

The contrasting performance of Ford's units highlights the challenges and opportunities within the automotive industry. Ford Pro's profitability underscores the robust demand for commercial vehicles, while the losses in the EV division reflect the ongoing investment and competitive pressures in the electric vehicle market.

Ford's EV sales surged 61.4% in the first quarter, driven by the Mustang Mach-E, Ford Lightning pickup, and E-Transit EV van. Hybrid sales also saw a significant increase of 55.6% in Q2. Truck sales recovered, with a 4.5% increase to 308,920 units, though F-Series pickup sales slipped by 6% due to production delays.

In response to market demand, Ford announced plans to boost Super Duty production by converting its Oakville assembly plant for EV trucks to Super Duty trucks by 2026. This decision follows a delay in EV production at its BlueOval City EV campus in Tennessee, now set to begin in 2026 instead of 2025.

The automotive industry, including major players like Ford, continues to navigate a complex landscape shaped by evolving consumer preferences, regulatory requirements, and technological advancements. Investors and stakeholders in financial institutions and investment banking should closely monitor these developments as they influence broader market dynamics and investment strategies.

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